Monday, January 12, 2015

Probability MA 320 - 001



MA 320 – 001
                                                              Probability
                                                              Spring 2015

1 Instructor Prof. Richard Carey

MWF 01:00-01:50 CB 214

Office: POT 965

E-Mail: Richard.carey@uky.edu


Office Hours: MWF 0300-0500 & by appt. Phone: 859 257-3745

2 Text

The text for the course is Introduction to Probability by Charles Grinstead and J. Laurie Snell. The

book is available for free online at Introduction to Probability

http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/teaching_aids/books_articles/probability_book/book.html.

3 Reference

Society of Actuaries http://www.soa.org/


4 Grading

Your grade will be calculated from the following distribution of points:

Exams: There will be three take-home exams given in this course: two term exams and a final. The grading 

scale for the first two exams will be as follows:
90-100 A
80-89 B
70-79 C
60-69 D
below 60 E

The grading scale for the final exam will be as follows

117-130 A
104-136 B
91-103 C
78-90 D
below  78 E

Homework problems: (100 points) From time to time I will ask for solutions to a particular homework

problem to be submitted. Your solution will be graded on the basis of accuracy, exposition and neatness.

Submission of written homework problems must be done on an individual basis. The homework

problems are online at WebWork  http://webwork2.ms.uky.edu/webwork2/. Select the MA320

course and login with your student  AD user name and your student ID number. For example, if your AD

user ID is JSMITH2 and your student  ID is 10771277 , then this is exactly what you should use to login.

You must enter the user name in upper case exactly as shown in this example.

Quizzes: (100 points) From time to time there will be an in- class quiz problem. I will give a selection of 

these problems prior to the time of the quiz.

Your course score will be the sum of your test, homework, and quiz scores.

The grading scale for the course will be as follows:

 Cumulative score grade

530-477 A; 424-476 B; 371-423 C; 318-370 D; below 318 E

Exam, Quiz and Attendance Policy:

Students are expected to attend each class meeting unless he or she has been excused by the instructor.

Failure to attend class will result in a lower grade, and may result in failing the class. Absences due to

illness or emergencies must be reported within a week. You may call the instructor’s office or email him at

the numbers/address listed on the first page of this syllabus. When there is an excused absence,

students will be given the opportunity to make up missed work and/or exams.

The following are typically accepted reasons for excused absences:

1. Serious illness.

2. Illness or death of a family member.

3. Approved University-related trips.

4. Major religious holidays.

5. Other circumstances found to be "reasonable cause for nonattendance.”

It is important to take each exam on schedule. Missed work may be made up only due to illness with 

medical documentation or for other unusual (documented) circumstances. Students who have university 

excused absences or who have university-scheduled class conflicts with uniform examinations may arrange 

with their instructor to take the exam at an alternate time. Work-related conflicts are neither university 

excused absences or university-scheduled absences. If you miss an exam, you receive a zero. You will be 

eligible for a make-up only if you present a valid excuse to me before the exam. If you cannot find a 

reasonable arrangement for a make-up, contact the department DUS Serge Ochanine.

Students anticipating an absence for a major religious holiday are responsible for notifying the instructor

in writing of anticipated absences due to their observance of such holidays no later than the last day for

adding a class. Information regarding dates of major religious holidays may be obtained through the the

religious liaison, Mr. Jake Karnes (257-2754).

Unexcused Absences

A student who has unexcused absences in excess of five 2 -hour classes will receive a failing grade for

the course without regard or points earned through completed assignments

No make-up opportunities will be given for unexcused absences. Missing 5 classes results in a 

penality of 1/2 a letter grade; and each subsequent miss produces another drop of 1/2  letter

grade. No make-up opportunities will be given for unexcused absences.

Make-up exam

Students are expected to take exam at the times scheduled in the syllabus. Possible exceptions include

verified serious illness, serious family emergency, subpoenas, jury duty, military service, religious

observances, or a legitimate conflict with recognized University activities. If these apply, you must contact

instructors to request a makeup. Make these arrangements as soon as you know of the conflict BEFORE

the exam. No make-up for assignment is allowed.

Incompletes :

An incomplete grade due to illness or other emergencies may be arranged. A request for an incomplete

due to illness must be accompanied by a letter from your doctor, the Student Health Service, or a

hospital. Lack of time to complete assigned work, or other reasons not relating to unavoidable excused

absences, will not be accepted as a valid reason for petitioning for an incomplete. No incompletes will be

given unless you have a prior written agreement with the instructor BEFORE the end of classes.

Cheating:

 Cheating will not be tolerated, and you are responsible for knowing University policy on cheating. The 

University’s minimum policy for cheating is failure in the course. (Yes, the chair of the department does 

spend time each semester prosecuting students who thought they’d never get caught!) Cheating can lead to 

expulsion from the university. For a complete description of University policies on excused absences, 

cheating, and student responsibilities see UK's New Academic Offenses Policy can be found at

http://www.chem.uky.edu/research/grossman/acadoffenses/index.htm

For instance, Senate Rule 6.4.11 states:

The minimum penalty for an academic offense is an E in the course in which the offense took place. The 

repeat option may not be used to remove an E given for an academic offense. If a prior academic offense 

has been recorded in the Registrar’s Office, the minimum penalty shall be suspension for one semester (or a 

minimum of four months in those colleges in the Medical Center where the semester system is not in use. 

Penalties more severe than the minimum may be imposed where warranted by the circumstances.

Our class is a cell phone-free zone. Cell phones must be off & out of sight for the entire class period.

Important Dates
January 14 (Wed.).................................................................... First day of classes
January 19 (Mon.) .........................................No classes – Martin Luther King Day
January 21 (Wed.) ................................................................Last day to add a class
February 4 (Wed.)………………………….Last day to drop a class without a grade
March 9 (Mon.)…………………………………….........................................Midterm
March 16-21 (Mon. –Sat.) ………........................... …No classes - Spring vacation
April 10 (Fri.)……………….. ................................Last day to withdraw from a class
May1 (Fri.) …………………………………… …................... ……Last day of classes
May 4-8 ……………….... …………………………………………...Final examinations
May 6 (Wed.) 01:00-03:00……………….........................................Final examination



5 Course Goals

The course is an introduction to probability. We shall cover the basic ideas of probability that are

covered in Chapter 1 through Chapter 9 in the text. A student who earns a grade of A in the

course should be able to pass the first Society of Actuaries examination. I have provided links to

sample SOA exams, and these exams will give you a very good idea of the type of probability

problem you should be able to work if you have a good understanding of the material.

6 Experiments and Software

A great deal of insight and understanding can be gained in probability by doing experiments. The

experiment can be as simple as flipping a coin a number of times and keeping track of the

outcomes. Generally, it will be much easier to perform such experiments by using computer

software that does the coin flipping for you and records outcomes in as much detail as you like.


One particularly useful software package for probability experiments is R, and it is freely

available for download on the CRAN website CRAN http://cran.r-project.org/. There are

many introductory documents on using R. Here are a few.
Here is how one would flip a coin 100 times in R and count the number of Heads that you obtain.

coin <- c="" span="">

flip <- 100="" coin="" font="">

replace="TRUE)" data-blogger-escaped-sample="" data-blogger-escaped-span="">

length(which(flip == "H"))

Of course there are many other software packages that can be used to do experiments in

probability. I suggest you find one you like and become proficient doing simple "coin flip" like

simulations.

10  Sample Exams


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